Wholesale Vehicle Market Climate Heads Into a Cooldown
The slowing economy has driven average vehicle sale and floor prices past a turning point compared to last year.
The slowing economy has driven average vehicle sale and floor prices past a turning point compared to last year.
Analysis: Starting in 2023, the effects of the pandemic-driven slowdown and the changes in leasing will affect the used-vehicle supply by mid-decade.
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All eight major market segments saw seasonally adjusted prices that were lower year over year in the first half of October.
Higher interest rates are likely hurting used-vehicle demand because consumers can’t afford the higher monthly payments.
Despite elevated vehicle prices, soaring interest rates and high inflation, there are no signs that demand is falling off yet.
Only three of eight major market segments saw seasonally adjusted prices that were higher year over year in September. The full-year Manheim Used Vehicle Value Index forecast is expected to finish the year down nearly 14% YOY, up from the second quarter’s revised forecast of a 6% decline.
If retail consumers avoid buying new vehicles because of high inflation and interest rates, then OEMs may route more of them into fleet and lease channels.
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Wholesale prices had been moving downward for most of the year and decreased 4% in August from July, widening the divergence with retail prices.
But don't get too excited. Days supply is still far below historical levels and production has yet to catch up to demand.
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