Analysis: The actions of the UAW will reverberate through the larger auto business, but nowhere near what was experienced in April 2020. Sales into fleet could suffer in 4Q if a strike is wide and persists. Rental car companies may return to the used car market like they did in 2021 and 2022, driving prices higher.
Declines in Manheim Market Report prices, days' supply, and average daily sales conversion rates are following typical patterns for November.
Days’ supply climbed to 49, the highest since May 2021. The question now is: Will demand keep up with supply?
All eight major market segments saw seasonally adjusted prices that were lower year over year in the first half of October.
Higher interest rates are likely hurting used-vehicle demand because consumers can’t afford the higher monthly payments.
Despite elevated vehicle prices, soaring interest rates and high inflation, there are no signs that demand is falling off yet.
Wholesale prices had been moving downward for most of the year and decreased 4% in August from July, widening the divergence with retail prices.
But don't get too excited. Days supply is still far below historical levels and production has yet to catch up to demand.
Used vehicles are tracking at a fairly normal pace for supply. Sales have slowed compared to the strong pace in the summer of 2021, but are still relatively healthy.
As gas prices surged to record levels, inventory of imports, especially smaller, fuel-efficient models, including hybrids, was among the lowest in the industry at the end of May.
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